My eyes have seen a lot of probability info graphics which could prove to be helpful. There have been many people in raids explaining the probabilities very incorrectly, and say that only the last few balls really matter.
Every throw has a base probability of catching a Pokemon. This probability can be affected by curve, berry, nice/great/excellent. Most of all, the charts for the legendary Pokemon lists the single throw probabilities. When you complete a raid, you get a number of balls. Each of these balls represents a single throw, containing a catch probability inside.
On the other hand, if you have multiple throws, the probability of catching a Pokemon will increase. If you have a Pokemon with a catch probability of 50%, with every single throw you have exactly the same chance of catching it. With, let’s say, 6 balls the catch probability will increase up to 98.4%. However, this does not mean that if you go from the start with 6 balls and you did not succeed to catch it with 5 balls, that you have a 98.4% chance of catching it with the last ball. Each throw is independent.
The odds of catching a Pokemon do not increase with the subsequent throws. When you are down to the last ball, the catch probability is down at 50%. Even though it is easy to fall in the logical fallacy of thinking that having 90% of catching a Pokemon with 10 balls, and you have already thrown 6 of them without catching the beast, and you still have a 90% chance of catching it with the remaining balls.
So, you’ve already used 6 balls out of 10 to catch the Pokemon. The probability is the same as catching the Pokemon with only 4 balls.
There you have it, you may now relax and catch ’em all and don’t forget, each throw is independent! Thanks to Mathishardyo for sharing this with us!
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