It is most likely that every player has a Raid fever. We can all agree that it is extremely rare to see a perfect Raid Boss. It is a 1 in 216 chance of happening per Raid, or Egg. The most important question right now is, based on the number a player does, how likely will he see the desired IV Raid Boss? The answer is, the more Raids you do, the higher chance you have of getting a good Raid Boss.
Down below we provide you the statistical distribution that will allow you to determine the probability of seeing a perfect IV Raid Boss after many tries:
All the charts are the same but just cover more and more Raids. Some of the less strict requirements on a “good” Raid Boss become so likely so quickly that you can’t really read that data on the 1000 Raid chart so there are Raid graphs to the more likely scenarios in good detail. The X-axis is the number of raids done and the Y-axis shows you the probability of seeing 1-or-more good Raid Boss in that many Raids. The -or more part here matters. After only two raids it’s possible to have seen two perfects.
Have in mind that the raids are completely independent events. Explained more clearly, even if you see 10 perfect Raid Bosses in a row, the chance of seeing the 11th perfect is still 1 in 216. For example, if you do 140 Entei raids, you cannot say “only 10 more to go” until you have the 50% chance of seeing one. It is 50/50, either you see it, or you do not. If you want to come to 50% of seeing a perfect Raid Boss, you need to do 150 more raids.
These charts can also be used in other ways such as:
“Egg hatching has the same IV distribution as Raid Bosses (an same level-20 mons too). To have a 50% chance of 1-or-more perfect egg hatches you need to hatch 150 eggs.”
“These numbers work for groups too. For example, yesterday my local raiding crew renter a big SUV and 6 of us (8 accounts) did 49 raids. Since there were 8 accounts times 49 raids that’s 392 total encounters. Looking that up in the chart, there was about an 84% chance of us seeing 1-or-more perfect. As it happens, we saw exactly one. On average we would have expected to see 392 / 216 = 1.815 perfects but we only saw one. It’s probably a good thing fractional perfects don’t exist.”
“If you do a raid group with 20 people that’s 20 encounters all at once. There is about an 8% chance that one more more people in the group of 20 have a perfect boss.”
Conclusion
- 150 Raids – 50% chance of seeing a perfect IV Raid Boss
- 37 Raids – 50% chance of seeing a 98% or better Raid Boss
- 450 Raids – less than 90% chance of seeing perfect Raid Boss
- But, if you are looking for a good Raid Boss 89% or better IVs with a maxed attack, there is more than 80% chance of seeing one in only 16 Raids.
Thanks to bmenrigh for making these statistics.
