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Pokemon Go Players Will Walk 1,000KM or Spend Real Money to Get Riolu According to Analysis

Riolu and its evolution Lucario are one of the most famous Pokemon in Pokemon franchise. Lucario is the signature Pokemon from Pokemon Diamond and Pearl, has its own movie, appeared in Pokemon X&Y and this Pokemon is a playable character in the Super Smash Bros. Ultimate. So pretty much, Riolu and Lucario are two very popular Pokemon in the Pokemon world.

Riolu/Lucario made its debut in Pokemon Go back in October 2018, but it seems like it’s very hard to get/catch this Pokemon, as it’s available only from 7km and 10km Eggs and the chance of getting/hatching one is 0.7%.

Now, a Pokemon Go player has explained why is it so hard to get Riolu, saying that some players are spending an average of $50-60$ just to have this Pokemon in the Pokedex.

Here is the analysis:

Riolu (Baby Lucario) is only available via hatching 7km and 10km Eggs. It has a 0.7% chance of appearing (~7/1000). On average, each player will need to hatch 143 eggs to get a Riolu. With 3 uses per incubator, that’s a total of 48 incubators used. That comes out to a total of 9,600 COINS for Super Incubators, or 7,200 with normal incubators. This is equivalent to $66.20 USD and around $50.00 USD respectively, if buying coins from the shop. If you wanted to do this with only coins earned via gym defense, it would take at least 192 DAYS due to the 50 coin limit. Given that Riolu/Lucario were only released in October 2018, under 168 days ago, it actually hasn’t been possible to earn that many coins yet. The average free player with only the default incubator would have to walk just over 1,000km (621 miles) with only 7k eggs to get a Riolu.

Please keep in mind that I am discussing averages. Some players may get multiple Riolus in a row, some may get none. These statistics will be accurate when looking at a large sample of the playerbase.

Will you spend real money to catch Riolu/Lucario? Let us know in the comment section below!

Pokemon Go New, Updated 2km, 5km, 7km and 10km Egg Chart

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Dejan Kacurov

Hi, gamers! You can call me Mr. DComplex. I'm a gamer, a hardcore gamer. My favorite genres are Action RPG and MMORPG. At the moment I'm using my PC as my only gaming platform, but soon I might get a new PS4 from Angel. Update - Angel did get me a PS4, oh wait, it's the PS4 PRO 1TB!!! Much love bro!

14 Comments

  1. I wasn’t really after this Pokémon, I just checked and I have 3 that I haven’t deleted and have 176 candy. Without trying .

      1. Yeah. Lucky. I had to wait 3 months to friend up and trade for one. In those 3 months and to this day no Riolu. In fact um pretty sure only tyrogue and iggly buff are in my 7k eggs

  2. Assuming someone follows these steps exactly.
    -you don’t have to spend ANY money on this game
    -you can use the infinite incubator

    This average is BS

  3. Wow, for such a hardcore gamer you sure don’t seem to understand odds. It means you could hatch it from the first 10k or 7k egg that you got after they were released….or you could literally NEVER hatch one, walking 1000k to get one could very well net you nothing, just like walking 2000k also still doesn’t guarantee one. That just means they are rare and your best bet to find one is to, gasp, be social and ask around to find someone willing to trade for one. Some people have the luck to get them, some don’t. That’s why there are game mechanics that still allow you to get one without spending ANY money, even if you don’t hatch one. But I guess it wouldn’t be much of a story if you mention the easy FREE way to obtain them.

    1. I hatched a Riolu on 8 December so was quite lucky – nothing since. I also managed to get 2 Far Fetch’d and a Tauros (not available in UK) from 7km eggs I had been gifted. I didn’t know Riolu was that hard to obtain, wow!

    2. What’s easy free way please I been playing since 2016 and I am desperate for 2 riolu one to evolve to
      Lucario

  4. Dont believe them odds.i have 4 accounts and easily walked 1000km between the 4 as that’s only 250km in total ,yet no riolu on any account.its clearly much rarer.like the so called 1 in 20 lucky trades it’s more like 1 in 40 for most people I know

  5. I got one from an egg when I was level 4, I just happen to stumble upon it from a yellow egg if I remember correctly. was happy but I did not know that I was this lucky! wow now I feel blessed lol

  6. Ive gotten multiple actually. I’ve transferred at least one I know of. Just traded a lucario the other day. Now I understand why he asked me for it! I was like…..ok! Still have one Ricky left

  7. Your also not calculating for any events that speed up hatching eggs. Nice calculation but not accurate to actual game play.

  8. Believe it or not, I hatched Riolu from a 10km egg I received in the Adventure Sync rewards not long after it was introduced. Guess I should count myself lucky.

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