Pokemon Go Players Will Walk 1,000KM or Spend Real Money to Get Riolu According to Analysis


Riolu (Baby Lucario) is only available via hatching 7km and 10km Eggs. It has a 0.7% chance of appearing (~7/1000). On average, each player will need to hatch 143 eggs to get a Riolu. With 3 uses per incubator, that’s a total of 48 incubators used. That comes out to a total of 9,600 COINS for Super Incubators, or 7,200 with normal incubators. This is equivalent to $66.20 USD and around $50.00 USD respectively, if buying coins from the shop. If you wanted to do this with only coins earned via gym defense, it would take at least 192 DAYS due to the 50 coin limit. Given that Riolu/Lucario were only released in October 2018, under 168 days ago, it actually hasn’t been possible to earn that many coins yet. The average free player with only the default incubator would have to walk just over 1,000km (621 miles) with only 7k eggs to get a Riolu.

Please keep in mind that I am discussing averages. Some players may get multiple Riolus in a row, some may get none. These statistics will be accurate when looking at a large sample of the playerbase.

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Dejan Kacurov

Hello everyone! My name is Dejan, but you can call me Mr.D. I enjoy all video games, especially Apex Legends, Pokemon Go, and Spider-Man. A husband and father of two who also goes to the gym often and does Crossfit. I got inspiration for gaming exactly 8 years ago, and I've been writing gaming news for 7 years. I hope that you will find all the answers to your questions regarding gaming on our site. Stay healthy, and love each other!


  1. I wasn’t really after this Pokémon, I just checked and I have 3 that I haven’t deleted and have 176 candy. Without trying .

      1. Yeah. Lucky. I had to wait 3 months to friend up and trade for one. In those 3 months and to this day no Riolu. In fact um pretty sure only tyrogue and iggly buff are in my 7k eggs

      2. Best revenge ever, I made a baby account and nurtured it for a year for my “boyfriend”. Turned out he was using me and married, but I hatched a shiny Riolu on his account…yay! Payback is a b***h, I’ve changed the password and it is MINE ALL MINE oh if anyone is interested in hatching all the free incubation eggs you can find, just pm me…I walk 175-200kms per night as I sleep

    1. Best revenge ever, I made a baby account and nurtured it for a year for my “boyfriend”. Turned out he was using me and married, but I hatched a shiny Riolu on his account…yay! Payback is a b***h, I’ve changed the password and it is MINE ALL MINE

  2. Assuming someone follows these steps exactly.
    -you don’t have to spend ANY money on this game
    -you can use the infinite incubator

    This average is BS

  3. I hatched 2 already and evolved them so was not too hard to do casue I used my rare candy to evolve them

  4. Wow, for such a hardcore gamer you sure don’t seem to understand odds. It means you could hatch it from the first 10k or 7k egg that you got after they were released….or you could literally NEVER hatch one, walking 1000k to get one could very well net you nothing, just like walking 2000k also still doesn’t guarantee one. That just means they are rare and your best bet to find one is to, gasp, be social and ask around to find someone willing to trade for one. Some people have the luck to get them, some don’t. That’s why there are game mechanics that still allow you to get one without spending ANY money, even if you don’t hatch one. But I guess it wouldn’t be much of a story if you mention the easy FREE way to obtain them.

    1. I hatched a Riolu on 8 December so was quite lucky – nothing since. I also managed to get 2 Far Fetch’d and a Tauros (not available in UK) from 7km eggs I had been gifted. I didn’t know Riolu was that hard to obtain, wow!

    2. What’s easy free way please I been playing since 2016 and I am desperate for 2 riolu one to evolve to

  5. Dont believe them odds.i have 4 accounts and easily walked 1000km between the 4 as that’s only 250km in total ,yet no riolu on any account.its clearly much the so called 1 in 20 lucky trades it’s more like 1 in 40 for most people I know

  6. I got one from an egg when I was level 4, I just happen to stumble upon it from a yellow egg if I remember correctly. was happy but I did not know that I was this lucky! wow now I feel blessed lol

  7. Ive gotten multiple actually. I’ve transferred at least one I know of. Just traded a lucario the other day. Now I understand why he asked me for it! I was like…..ok! Still have one Ricky left

  8. Your also not calculating for any events that speed up hatching eggs. Nice calculation but not accurate to actual game play.

  9. Believe it or not, I hatched Riolu from a 10km egg I received in the Adventure Sync rewards not long after it was introduced. Guess I should count myself lucky.

  10. I hatched a Riolu at level 24 and had no idea what it was. I asked my dad and he literally gasped and started jumping around like I do when I catch a level 5 raid boss.

  11. I’ve hatched 1200 eggs. About half have been 7km eggs. I try to only to open gifts when I need eggs. They are nearly all from overseas friends. I feel lucky I just hatched my 2nd today. Shinies are another story. Never hatched one. If the odds were good, this thread and story wouldn’t exist. I like not getting stuff. That way, when I do, it’s a blast. I’m off to cuddle with Riolu.

  12. I’m guessing I have opened over (300) 7km eggs and no idea how many 10km eggs. I have received every pokemon in 7 km except a riolu and now he isn’t in 10 km eggs. How can he be so rare, it’s ridiculous.

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