Trainers, the first Mega-themed event is now live featuring new bonuses, field research tasks, and boosted spawns. The first Mega-themed event or the Mega Raid event starts today, September 1 at 8 AM, and will end on September 7 at 10 PM local time. During the event time, players must complete 2 million Mega Raids to unlock Mega Pidgeot in Mega Raids.
As mentioned above, there are numerous bonuses such as an increased number of Mega Raids, increased attack bonus from Friends in Raids, shiny encounters and probably the most useful one is the Battle another Trainer quest for 5 Mega Energy.
Now, what is very interesting is that the quest rate for Mega Energy is very low, less than 0.6%.
Thanks to the analysis made by Lewymd, the chances of seeing/getting a Mega Energy quest are close to 0. In other words, it is impossible for any trainer to accomplish this.
In the analysis, Lewymd has used a sample size of 1874 with around 11 stops that have Mega Energy quests. The calculation is close to 0.587%, less than 0.6%. This means that there is approximately 1 in every 170 stops, still less than 1%.
Take the assumption that the quests are evenly split between the Mega Beasts (Blastoise, Charizard, and Venusaur), to get one of each Mega at first unlock cost would take on 20422 stops. If we count both Charizard X and Y, this would double the number, which would be 40884 stops.
If you find the same Mega Energy type, you would need to get to 6814 stops to even find enough energy for your first Mega Evolution
They should at least increase the Mega Energy quest rate to 10% and no one would complain.